Light in the Sky (but not at the end of the tunnel)

Watching the news and seeing what is going on in the US and in many parts of Asia, you get the impression that people are seeing light at the end of the pandemic tunnel. As the northern hemisphere morphs into spring and summer, it accentuates that feeling of a new beginning. 

No so in Africa. Though the virus never plunged us to the public health and economic depths that much of the world anticipated, we're now seeing that as the virus drags on and continues to mutate, the lack of broader access to vaccines is increasingly problematic. It's painful to see that some countries have procured more vaccines than their population needs and other countries are struggling to even provide access to the most vulnerable. However this tactic may prove to come back to haunt the richer countries as they seem to be willing to allow a situation where the virus continues to evolve and, potentially, even threatening the efficacy of those precious (and horded) vaccines.

As of this week, Kenya has gone back to lockdown. The new variant (allegedly the UK variant though I don’t think that’s confirmed; could also be the South African variant, or both, or a new one) is wreaking havoc and infections and deaths are on the rise. I have been bragging about Kenya’s ability to keep a lid on the pandemic compared to many other countries, particularly in the US or in Europe. But the new variant plus the lack of a real vaccine rollout and pandemic fatigue are all playing into the current spite in infections.

Adherence to mitigation protocols varies depending on where you are, whether in Nairobi or elsewhere. But I think the real culprit has been bars and social gatherings and sometimes churches and mosques. These are the Achilles heel of a society when it comes to virus transmission, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Not coincidentally the lockdown comes just prior to a rather festive time of year. Easter is this weekend. The month-long fast of Ramadan is coming by mid-April. These are events that generally involve people gathering together to celebrate. Likely the intention of the government is to prevent these celebrations from launching the country into a perilous situation. But the economic impact will be huge. Thousands of tourists were booked to head out to the coast or on safari. Almost all of that had to be cancelled and businesses are now going to take another huge hit. Staff might get laid off again. Though I suspect that things will open up by mid-May or so, if the numbers start to go down, it won’t make up for the current losses to businesses that were already on shaky ground to begin with.

Schools in the country have been open since the beginning of the year. Kenyan public schools are currently on break so this won’t impact them but international schools, such as the one our girls go to, need to return to home school. But many Kenyans living in Nairobi have extended families in a village someplace. They often take children to the grandparents during these long school holidays and then visit them on weekends. Someone was telling me the other day that she took her children to the grandparents a couple of weeks ago and she will now be unable to see them until the lockdown is over.

It’s inconvenient but it’s not the end of the world when you consider the amount of suffering right now in Kenyan health facilities. I suppose my problem with the school closures it is that there is no evidence that schools in the country have had any impact on transmission rates. The way the lockdown is being rolled out is sort of a blunt instrument to not only stem to tide of Covid-19 but also to demonstrate that the government is taking this seriously. But I don’t think it’s thought through very well.

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Last week I was up early doing my workout as I normally do. On this day I was out the door by about 5am to run stairs in our building. On my last trip up to the roof, I normally stay up there to do some other exercises in the dark of early morning. At one point I was doing some sit-ups (crunches) facing south. The stars were out and it was beautiful and peaceful - one of the best parts of my day. All of the sudden I saw what appeared to be a shooting star. It flashed for only a second, heading downward at about a 45-degree angle, and then disappeared. That’s not blog-worthy in and of itself but then it happened again about twenty seconds later – in the same exact spot for the same duration. That was puzzling since, if it was the continuation of the same shooting star, it would have been farther down at the same angle rather than in the same spot.

So now, exercise interrupted, I’m watching the same spot. Sure enough, about 15-20 seconds after the previous flash, it does it for the third time. Same duration. Same spot. It then did it a fourth time and then a fifth. But after the fifth time it never reappeared.

I’m a skeptic by nature. I generally roll my eyes when people discuss UFOs, Bigfoot, the Loch Ness Monster, etc. I have never been a fan of sci-fi (Star Wars being my exception). Being the boring, rational thinker that I am, I have been trying to find an explanation for what I saw and I haven’t been able to come up with anything. It didn’t fit any patterns of satellites or space debris or anything like that. It’s hard to say what it was but it was fascinating nonetheless.