Politial Evolution

As the pandemic has worn on, I feel that the passage of time seems to be accelerating. Weeks are ticking by at an alarming rate. Things that were on my schedule way into the future are either imminent or behind me. And yet as I read Twitter posts, others seem to have the opposite sensation. I’ve seen several posts that talk about how to use the extra time during Covid or how to avoid becoming bored. I don’t remember being bored in my entire life (certainly not since the cell phone was invented).

Granted, I am a parent with two pre-teens. I have a job where I focus on a war-torn country in the midst of a contentious election, fraught with violence. I’m weathering most of the pandemic in an amazingly beautiful country loaded with things to see and do (and has thus far kept a lid on the pandemic). And I have an endless list of interests/hobbies that could fill several lifetimes. So no, I’m not bored and I very likely never will be.

Regarding some of these areas, I can provide a brief update. The pre-teens are now on holiday for the next couple of weeks. The school’s efforts to restore face-to-face education have largely been successful and so we enter this brief vacation knowing that they will return to the classroom thereafter. It’s a huge relief and possibly something that could have even been done earlier. But we’re all learning a lot as this pandemic rolls on. As for how they are spending this holiday, we have some other obligations, including my job, so we will have a limited amount of time when we can get away. We might go camping or something.

As for the country in crisis, Somalia is in a bit of a mess right now – even more than normal. My last posting was from my visit in which there was a nearby terrorist attack. Since then the political stalemate has been exacerbated, violence has continued and Covid-19 cases are on a sharp rise. My travel to the country is on hold indefinitely while these things are sorted out. I know that some Somalis have made comparisons to 1991 (the beginning of the civil war), and that may well be justified, but I tend to think that’s probably a bit hyperbolic. I may be wrong. I’m not Somali and I have had far less experience with the country than some. But I tend to think that the situation is different now, with stakeholders that have far too much to lose than stakeholders did back in the day. The unraveling of the country might benefit terrorists but for the players at the negotiating table(s), it’s likely they will continue to push their agendas to the very limit and likely not take them beyond. I have no idea how this is going to play out but I suspect that we will end up with a delayed, flawed election. Players will allow for some compromises. Everyone will have plenty to complain about but the system shouldn't fall completely apart.

I may be talking complete nonsense but I’m basing this on my attempt to look back and see the overall trajectory, going back more than a century. In sum, it’s about a fractured, clan-based society that is absorbed into a world that now functions with interacting nation states. While the old way was sustainable for centuries, it is now clashing with a world system that has demands and expectations that frustrate the old system. In fact many nations went through this same evolution, some of them centuries ago. Countries have formed and nations tend to work most effectively with other nations, rather than a dynamic grouping of clan societies. In some cases multi-country institutions have formed (ex. EU). No one knows where this is headed but it’s clear that, generally speaking, the smaller the entity, the less the leverage (we'll see how Brexit works out).

As such, the old system in Somalia has for the past several decades been grappling with what sort of system might work. Though almost no one likes their federal government, people are increasingly realizing that it's getting more and more difficult to avoid. Some have discussed dissolving into smaller, more clan-homogenous states (ex. Somaliland) but in most cases there just aren’t the natural resources to make such a thing viable. Most Somalis recognize that a federal government is a necessary evil. What’s happening today is the defining of the way forward. How will the power of this beast be distributed? How will resources be shared? What processes will be in place to protect the interests of all stakeholders? These people (mostly men) seem to be cognizant of the fact that they are, in many ways, the nation’s founding fathers. Thus, the stakes are high.

One could say that independence happened in 1960 so this can’t be the foundational period. Unfortunately, those early years, although they contained a constitution, did not effectively lay the foundation for a nation. Imagine the US Civil War taking place thirty years after the Declaration of Independence rather than ninety years. The unraveling happened before the nation could get to its feet.

So this is no doubt a critical time in the history of the country. If level heads prevail, we could come out the other side in a more mature political context. Or not. Time will tell.

Political Parallels

Over the past few months I’ve been tracking elections, primarily in the US and Somalia (for obvious reasons). The former is thankfully fading into history though not without a considerable amount of reflection from all sides. The latter stumbles forward with repeated delays and challenges to have consensus on how to have consensus, all with the background of insecurity.

In the US, the second impeachment rolls on with an obvious need for conviction but with politicians who seem to have no convictions. Rarely in jurisprudence do you see people who conspired with the defense who are also the jury. And framing the primary goal as preventing someone from being eligible for public office is to miss the main point of the impeachment – holding someone accountable for his actions. As I’ve said before, politicians don’t make most decisions based on personal conviction. It’s usually political calculation, and in this case most of the cronies are betting on the short-term benefit of allegiance to their disgraced leader. But I would bet that most, if they are honest, would be happy to have him out of the picture four years from now. While he’s been useful to them in accomplishing much of their agenda, he’s increasingly getting in their way, not only because he’s damaged goods but particularly for those who fancy themselves as future presidential candidates.

The impeachment process reminds me of the quote: “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” - George Bernard Shaw

 

From my perspective, regardless of the efforts to undermine the process, both prior to and afterwards, democracy, battered and bruised, did prevail. The best man and woman won and I’m already getting a sense that America’s tattered international reputation is on the past towards being restored. All is certainly not well but I get the sense that, for now at least, things are headed in the right direction.

 

In the Horn of Africa, things are a bit different. As I sit here in Mogadishu and reflect on where things are going in Somalia, there are some striking contrasts obviously, but also some interesting similarities between the elections here and what happened in the US:

1. New York: Interestingly, both elections put forth controversial candidates from NY. The current president of Somalia was a US citizen previously residing in upstate NY for a few decades. Not really relevant in the big picture but interesting nonetheless.
   
   
2. Instability: Though instability reared its ugly head in the weeks after the election in the US, throughout his time in office the former president fostered fear and polarization that has traditionally been more characteristic of developing countries, including Somalia.. The January insurrection was straight out of many developing countries' playbook.
   
   
3. Personal insecurities: Trevor Noah on the Daily Show suggested that Trump was America’s African president. On numerous occasions the former president bragged about his wealth and power. In most of the world that would be considered unacceptable. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it’s often done to impress your constituents and maybe intimidate your opponents. The wealth of the elites is generally not as discreet as it is in many countries in the West or in Asia. Noah showed clips of former dictators, Idi Amin (Uganda) and Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe), using almost the exact same language as Trump in talking about how rich he is and how much people love him. Whenever he was feeling down, he could always count on a public rally to lift his spirits. Whether you liked the former president or not, there is no question that the man possesses some profound insecurities.
   
   
4. Doubt: Attempting to cast doubt on, or rig, the election process has been a common tactic in sub-Saharan Africa since the wave of independence in the early 1960’s. The integrity of the US elections, the respect for the process/protocols (win or lose), has been something that used to make America stand out from many other countries. While the former president’s supporters like to say he was “unconventional”, the truth is that it’s horribly damaging to cast doubt on the system. A tattoo on your forehead might be unconventional. But making me guess whether or not you are going to stop at that stoplight could be lethal. Trust is essential. Americans who have not lived in societies that lack a certain basic trust, will have no idea how valuable it is until it’s gone.
   
   The announcement that additional security around the Capitol will be permanent is a sign of the damage this man has done. People from other countries have admired the openness of the US. Few places in the world would have a capitol exposed like that. It has been possible because the US had established a civil society that has allowed such things, not only in Washington DC but across the country. The fueling of militias and acceptance of behavior such as what the world saw on January 6 (and in other places such as Michigan), is a deterioration from which the country may not recover. Once trust is gone, it’s hard to restore.

In Somalia, with all its faults, the longer-term trajectory has been generally positive, in contrast to the US. But both countries are at a bit of a crossroads. There are people in both places that have a vested interest in undermining the process for personal gain. In the US, the system is bending but not breaking. In Somalia, it’s bending to the point that there is a risk that it could break entirely unless level heads prevail.The next few weeks will be critical.

The slide that has been happening in the US is worrying for more than just Americans. The US, with all its faults, has contributed to much good in the world. There is hope that with the new administration in place, this positive influence can be restored. One sad byproduct of what has happened in the US is that many developing countries have, consciously or unconsciously, felt that if their country could just get further down the path towards a solid democracy, closer to something like the US, they would be good to go. There is now the scary thought that no matter where you are on that path, you’re always vulnerable. It’s been disheartening for many.

I make no predictions about the future except that the impeachment conviction will fail. The US will be able to restore much, but not all, of the dignity that it lost over the past four years but domestic terrorism will continue to rear its ugly head. Somalia will continue to falter but, given that stakeholders now have too much to lose, will avoid total collapse. And terrorism will continue to rear its ugly head. Bleak indeed, but it could be worse.

“A strong nation, like a strong person, can afford to be gentle, firm, thoughtful, and restrained. It can afford to extend a helping hand to others. It is a weak nation, like a weak person, that must behave with bluster and boasting and rashness and other signs of insecurity.” - Jimmy Carter, 39th US President, Nobel laureate (b. 1 Oct 1924)

Shaken but not stirred

 I’m in Mogadishu as I type this. I normally don’t post Somalia-related things until I’m out of the country for security reasons so likely this will appear on the blog either from the departure lounge or when I’m back in Nairobi.

I traveled this past Sunday and had my PCR test the prior Friday. The requirement is that the negative test be less than 90 hours from arrival. The last time I had the test, I received the results in a little over a day. This time it was not only same day but it arrived on my phone less than 8 hours after the swab. Pretty impressive. Most developed countries would have a hard time matching that efficiency.

The early morning flight allowed me to arrive in Mogadishu basically at the beginning of the workday (reminder, Sunday is the beginning of the week in Somalia). It was good to be back in the office and be with the team, at least the part of my team that works in Mogadishu. I spent nearly half my time in Somalia in the days prior to the pandemic and it was a big change not to come at all for some time. This was only my second visit since Covid hit, and my first one in 2021.

Throughout the country, I’m told that people are generally treating Covid as any other sickness, possibly even less so given the stigma that was attached to it early on by some (that it was a foreigner disease and that you would only get it if you weren’t a faithful Muslim). One of my staff told me that Somalis are largely ignoring the mitigation protocols unless they are in a health facility or if foreigners are around. So when you see photos of events posted online, it gives you the impression that masks/distancing are being implemented more widely than they really are. At least in the office, staff were quire respectful of each other in this regard. When they leave the office, it’s apparently a different story.

Throughout the day on Sunday I met with staff on various topics from security to HR to supply chain. People kept a safe distance and the guesthouse is large with good ventilation. So my Covid comfort level was generally quite good. Around 1pm, the cook brought up my lunch: yummy camel, veggies and rice with some fresh juice. In the afternoon, meetings continued. Email traffic was slow given that it wasn’t a workday in most of the rest of the world.

After an online meeting ended at around 4pm, I settled in at the dining table to do some emails. All of the sudden, at 5pm exactly, there was a huge explosion. I saw the flash out of the corner of my eye through the window to my right. The blast rattled the windows – one of those you feel in your chest as when lightning strikes close by. I had a pretty good idea that it was a car bomb given my experiences in the past – well beyond anything like a grenade or even an IED (improvised explosive device). A flurry of gunfire ensured. Dark smoke started rising from what looked like one street over; I was guessing it was a couple hundred meter away. Pretty scary.

The question was where and what were the immediate safety and security concerns for staff, assets and, to be honest, even myself. It was rush hour and I immediately wondered whether nor not staff had been caught up in whatever it was that was happening. Because of the challenges in getting through checkpoints, staff generally come to work on foot. That, in and of itself, creates a vulnerability for them when there are incidents like this.

I was alone at the time and I was waiting on information to come through my phone to get a better idea as to what was going on. I have one of the best security advisors in Somalia and I knew that he would be sending something out within the next few minutes. I didn’t know where he was but I knew he wasn’t in the building. At the same time I was tracking the sound of the gunfire to see where it was coming from and also assess whether or not it might be moving in my direction.

Within minutes my phone was lighting up with messages coming in from WhatsApp, Skype and SMS. I’m connected to various security forums and it allows me to triangulate information. Slowly it became apparent that it was indeed a complex attack – a car bomb that was detonated in front of a hotel followed by an attack of an unknown number of armed militants storming the compound. The next several hours consisted of informing, being informed and listening attentively to what was going on. Throughout what would be an eight-hour siege, I was periodically asked how I was doing. To be honest, I didn’t think much about it until I was going to bed that night. At the time I was just staying on high alert, synthesizing information, advising, etc. It was tense but I think I was so caught up in what was going on that I didn’t think about how I was doing.

My colleague, Hassan, who is head of the office and stays in the guesthouse, joined me partway through the evening. He had been in town when the attack began and had to navigate his way around the area surrounding the hotel to reach the office. He was handy to have around, not only for the company but he was accessing information in Somali that provided details I wasn’t getting.

As I was getting into bed, six hours into the siege, I received another message saying it was still ongoing. I was a bit surprised given that I hadn’t heard gunfire in the previous 45 minutes so I was trying to imagine what exactly was still happening. It had been reported that there were deaths but we didn’t know how many at that point. But with 8 hours of fireworks, I feared that the number would be high.

I had only a few hours sleep the night before combined with the stress of the day, so I was dreadfully tired. As I shut off the light I heard another explosion, the 20^th by my count, followed by more gunfire. I reassured myself that it was nonetheless winding down and before long I fell asleep. It tells you something about how exhausted I was that I could fall asleep with the occasional popping of gunfire a couple hundred meters away.

I remember in Bujumbura, after a night of crazy gunfire, the next morning the sun rise as it always did. The birds would be singing and there would be no indication of the night’s dramas. Such was the case Monday morning. Somalis don’t seem to let this sort of thing bother them. I suppose you can’t. I’ve been told on numerous occasions that crime scenes transform into reconstruction sites almost immediately. They make a point to erase the traces of attacks as quickly as possible, not allowing the scars left by the terrorists to linger.

The rest of the week consisted mostly of internal meetings. It can get claustrophobic confined in the guesthouse for a few days but I supposed the pandemic has provided some training in this area. I can go up to the roof to get some exposure to the elements, watch the sunset, feel the breeze, etc. But, frankly speaking, I’ve been so busy I barely notice. I just lower my head and go. I did get some respite on Wednesday presiding over a workshop at a nearby hotel. This hotel has far better security than the one that was attacked on Sunday so I wasn’t too concerned. I know the owner and we talked about the recent attack. He told me that he’d been allowed to visit the site and showed me some video from his phone. The amount of devastation was quite stunning. I knew it would be bad having heard all the gunfire and blasts but seeing it on his phone was rather sobering. I asked if he felt he’d learned something about how to better prepare for something like that and he said he had, commenting on the amount of technology and technical expertise of the attackers. They had even carried snacks with them in their backpacks, planning for the long siege though knowing they would perish in the end. Crazy.

Just had my return trip, house-call PCR test. Results will be back in less than four hours. Getting ready to head home.