Political Parallels

Over the past few months I’ve been tracking elections, primarily in the US and Somalia (for obvious reasons). The former is thankfully fading into history though not without a considerable amount of reflection from all sides. The latter stumbles forward with repeated delays and challenges to have consensus on how to have consensus, all with the background of insecurity.

In the US, the second impeachment rolls on with an obvious need for conviction but with politicians who seem to have no convictions. Rarely in jurisprudence do you see people who conspired with the defense who are also the jury. And framing the primary goal as preventing someone from being eligible for public office is to miss the main point of the impeachment – holding someone accountable for his actions. As I’ve said before, politicians don’t make most decisions based on personal conviction. It’s usually political calculation, and in this case most of the cronies are betting on the short-term benefit of allegiance to their disgraced leader. But I would bet that most, if they are honest, would be happy to have him out of the picture four years from now. While he’s been useful to them in accomplishing much of their agenda, he’s increasingly getting in their way, not only because he’s damaged goods but particularly for those who fancy themselves as future presidential candidates.

The impeachment process reminds me of the quote: “Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” - George Bernard Shaw

 

From my perspective, regardless of the efforts to undermine the process, both prior to and afterwards, democracy, battered and bruised, did prevail. The best man and woman won and I’m already getting a sense that America’s tattered international reputation is on the past towards being restored. All is certainly not well but I get the sense that, for now at least, things are headed in the right direction.

 

In the Horn of Africa, things are a bit different. As I sit here in Mogadishu and reflect on where things are going in Somalia, there are some striking contrasts obviously, but also some interesting similarities between the elections here and what happened in the US:

1. New York: Interestingly, both elections put forth controversial candidates from NY. The current president of Somalia was a US citizen previously residing in upstate NY for a few decades. Not really relevant in the big picture but interesting nonetheless.
   
   
2. Instability: Though instability reared its ugly head in the weeks after the election in the US, throughout his time in office the former president fostered fear and polarization that has traditionally been more characteristic of developing countries, including Somalia.. The January insurrection was straight out of many developing countries' playbook.
   
   
3. Personal insecurities: Trevor Noah on the Daily Show suggested that Trump was America’s African president. On numerous occasions the former president bragged about his wealth and power. In most of the world that would be considered unacceptable. But in sub-Saharan Africa, it’s often done to impress your constituents and maybe intimidate your opponents. The wealth of the elites is generally not as discreet as it is in many countries in the West or in Asia. Noah showed clips of former dictators, Idi Amin (Uganda) and Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe), using almost the exact same language as Trump in talking about how rich he is and how much people love him. Whenever he was feeling down, he could always count on a public rally to lift his spirits. Whether you liked the former president or not, there is no question that the man possesses some profound insecurities.
   
   
4. Doubt: Attempting to cast doubt on, or rig, the election process has been a common tactic in sub-Saharan Africa since the wave of independence in the early 1960’s. The integrity of the US elections, the respect for the process/protocols (win or lose), has been something that used to make America stand out from many other countries. While the former president’s supporters like to say he was “unconventional”, the truth is that it’s horribly damaging to cast doubt on the system. A tattoo on your forehead might be unconventional. But making me guess whether or not you are going to stop at that stoplight could be lethal. Trust is essential. Americans who have not lived in societies that lack a certain basic trust, will have no idea how valuable it is until it’s gone.
   
   The announcement that additional security around the Capitol will be permanent is a sign of the damage this man has done. People from other countries have admired the openness of the US. Few places in the world would have a capitol exposed like that. It has been possible because the US had established a civil society that has allowed such things, not only in Washington DC but across the country. The fueling of militias and acceptance of behavior such as what the world saw on January 6 (and in other places such as Michigan), is a deterioration from which the country may not recover. Once trust is gone, it’s hard to restore.

In Somalia, with all its faults, the longer-term trajectory has been generally positive, in contrast to the US. But both countries are at a bit of a crossroads. There are people in both places that have a vested interest in undermining the process for personal gain. In the US, the system is bending but not breaking. In Somalia, it’s bending to the point that there is a risk that it could break entirely unless level heads prevail.The next few weeks will be critical.

The slide that has been happening in the US is worrying for more than just Americans. The US, with all its faults, has contributed to much good in the world. There is hope that with the new administration in place, this positive influence can be restored. One sad byproduct of what has happened in the US is that many developing countries have, consciously or unconsciously, felt that if their country could just get further down the path towards a solid democracy, closer to something like the US, they would be good to go. There is now the scary thought that no matter where you are on that path, you’re always vulnerable. It’s been disheartening for many.

I make no predictions about the future except that the impeachment conviction will fail. The US will be able to restore much, but not all, of the dignity that it lost over the past four years but domestic terrorism will continue to rear its ugly head. Somalia will continue to falter but, given that stakeholders now have too much to lose, will avoid total collapse. And terrorism will continue to rear its ugly head. Bleak indeed, but it could be worse.

“A strong nation, like a strong person, can afford to be gentle, firm, thoughtful, and restrained. It can afford to extend a helping hand to others. It is a weak nation, like a weak person, that must behave with bluster and boasting and rashness and other signs of insecurity.” - Jimmy Carter, 39th US President, Nobel laureate (b. 1 Oct 1924)