Three Wednesdays in January

I should have known that when Kobe Bryant died unexpectedly one year ago that it was a sign a bad year was to come. The year sort of went from bad to worse. As I’ve said before, I shouldn’t complain since the events of the last 12 months have impacted us less than most. Nonetheless, watching terrible things happen to people, including people you know and populations we work with, has been, and continues to be, distressing. 

 

Three Historic Days

The hope has been that this year would be different. The former US president has been booted from office. The vaccine for the pandemic is now being rolled out. As the new year was being celebrated, most of the world anticipated a gradual move towards some sense of normality.

In a cruel twist in the wrong direction, on the first Wednesday of the year the former president unleashed an angry mob on the US Capitol, animosity that had been building for months due in large part to deceit peddled by conservative leadership. It was an unprecedented attack that reverberated beyond the borders of America. It frightened US allies and encouraged US enemies. America’s stature, which has taken a beating over the past four years, has never seemed more fragile in the 26 years that I have lived outside the country. It’s a stunning fall from grace that has made a mockery of the slogan adorning the red hats of the now ex-president’s supporters.

Seven days later, the soon-to-be ex-president becomes the first ever to be impeached twice after he incited the Capitol storming a week earlier. The notorious historical events just keep unfolding.

Finally, on the third Wednesday of the year, Joe Biden was inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States. Fortunately, with an insane amount of security the event took place without incident. 

Three historical events exactly seven days apart from each other.

As I type this, it is now the fourth Wednesday of the year. To my knowledge, nothing historical has happened but it’s still early. In fact it’s still Tuesday in most of the US right now.

 

 Vaccines for the Rich

There was a historical event that happened this past Monday. The world surpassed the milestone of 100 million Covid-19 (official) cases since the pandemic began. It’s a grim statistic, particularly because it is a false number. Countries around the world, including the US, don’t have accurate data. Many millions have been infected but were never tested and therefore don’t figure into the calculations. On my recent trip to Mogadishu, several of my staff admitted privately that they likely had the virus but didn’t want to be tested due to the stigma that has been associated with Covid in the country. I am aware that this has been the case in many contexts around the world. So, 100 million? Scary but the real number is likely more than twice that.

As we are already reaching the end of the first month of 2021, the outlook appears to be mixed. Better than 2020? Likely. Great year ahead? Likely not. But there are reasons for optimism. The rather passive US response to Covid-19 is moving into high gear with the new administration. Here in East Africa we’re not likely to see much penetration of the vaccine until 2022, if then, as rich countries take care of themselves first. But the population here has shown a bit more discipline than some other parts of the world when it comes to pandemic mitigation protocols. So the delay, albeit annoying, likely won’t have the same societal impact that it would have in places like the US and many parts of Europe. I suspect we’ll just plug along like we are, hopefully maintaining the current relatively low infection rate, until the vaccine finally shows up.

One concern is that if the vaccine is, as it appears, something that needs to be renewed every year like other flu vaccines, it could frustrate efforts to get the vaccine to places like Africa. Many in the West who are getting their vaccines now will be due for the boosters next year while we likely will not have even had our initial vaccination. It’s likely that Western countries will continue to prioritize themselves first and further delay first vaccines getting to poorer countries. The supply and distribution will really need to be ramped up to get these injections into the arms of those living in developing countries. And it's in the interest of the West, given that Covid anywhere is Covid everywhere.

 “A decent provision for the poor is the true test of civilization.” -Samuel Johnson, lexicographer (1709-1784)